Werewolf Round 4

od
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Re: Werewolf Round 4

Post by od » Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:28 pm

Wayloss wrote:Yeah I knew var was a virus when he went after me so aggressively, I had done nothing suspicious this round. I'm surprised bitom went with random deletion, once tron and the BG are safe why risk losing 2 programs in one round when the wolves can only get one.
Because the "sage" oculd be a lying werewolf. Until people start voting and hanging no one has any real trustworthy information. That's why Bit, and I generally say hanging the first round is better for the village. Because voting and hanging gives the villagers information. If you don't hang on day one you have 1 less villager and still no informaiton on day 2.

PMs seem to make the sage alot more powerful... but that's just because people are still in the habit of trusting claims of sageness. I think using PMs simplifies the game. I think using the die at night not revealed simplifies the game.

I will be honest, the game has felt easier as both a werewolf and a villager.

Deadman
Level 12
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Re: Werewolf Round 4

Post by Deadman » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:08 pm

The thing is to view all villagers as expendable. Basically we had a group of people that knew who the sage was and who they could trust. Having a cabal gave us an advantage.

Then we had a group of people we couldn't trust. We wanted to eliminate that group from suspicion before too many of our cabal members died. Eliminating them from suspicion includes killing them as well as scanning, even if they're innocent.

On night 1 a random killing only gives the group a 2/10 chance of killing a wolf, and has an equal chance of killing the sage or bodyguard. If the sage confers with a villager they've scanned and they manage to avoid implicating themselves they still only have a 2/8 chance of getting a wolf.

The odds are that the wolves won't kill the sage, the person they've scanned, or the person they're going to scan overnight. So on the second day you're probably going to have the sage and two villagers working together with only six possible suspects. Now a random guess is more attractive. 1/3 odds. And even if you kill a villager that also works in your favor. Because you've just reduced the number of suspects from 6 to 5, and that night your sage eliminates another. And it's possible the wolves themselves will kill another one of the suspects.

In the morning you either have 50/50 odds, or 2/3 odds of killing a wolf. And even if the sage got killed, well, 2/5 aren't that bad odds either, especially since by this point you should have some clues as to who is a wolf or not.

The important thing is leaving the sage alive long enough that they can build a coalition and avoid getting randomly killed. By day 2 they should have enough people working with them that they won't get randomly killed.

Obviously this changes if they find a wolf, but that's only a good thing. And if they find the bodyguard they can take more risks, since the sage doesn't risk being killed overnight.

None of this applies when there is no PMing allowed though. The sage can't build a coalition without revealing themselves. At a certain point though, perhaps giving the villagers a list of people they can trust would be worth getting killed that night. I wonder how game 5 will play out!

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Bitom
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Re: Werewolf Round 4

Post by Bitom » Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:25 pm

That's a good point, DM... the strongest proponents of 1st turn burn have been those who normally play without PM's

I still hold that the PM's are a huge advantage to the villagers. od, grim and I were able to turn them to our advantage during the salem game, but only barely, and it still took incredible luck to get the sage.

Sheer numbers make communication favor the villagers.

Also, it explains why people are so Dependant on the sage. There are players who are unwilling to make any kind of move until the sage reveals himself, which would lose the game every time in the games I'm used to.

Generally, I hope this game gets more popular, because 8-10 people is TINY for this game, and it really starts getting good with 16-20

Kilroy
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Re: Werewolf Round 4

Post by Kilroy » Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:58 am

I feel that PMing can really help the wolves because a villager might accidently put their trust in a wolf by accident. Or the Sage might reveal themselves taking a chance.

Granted, I'm still a new player to the game, but I think PMs help everyone about the same.
"If at first you DO succeed, try not to look surprised!"

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Bitom
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Re: Werewolf Round 4

Post by Bitom » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:14 am

I thought that initially, but the games so far have made me think that the villagers have a significant advantage. in a 10 person game, the villager team is recieving 80% of the PM's (give or take) they simply have access to more information.

The Tactic that DM mentions is the ideal use. the Sage KNOWS that someone is safe, and every round, that pool gets bigger. in non-pm werewolf, there is a special role just to let PART of the village know about each other (The masons) By adding PM's, you automaticly add the equivilant of masons to a small game. this is a huge advantage.

Lies are caught out quickly in this game, so lying in PM's is not as useful as you'd think... its not useless, grim, my and od's win proves that, but if we had't lucked into killing the sage on round 1, I don't think we would have had a chance.

Kilroy
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Re: Werewolf Round 4

Post by Kilroy » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:30 am

Well, I know as a villager last round, I didn't recieve ANY PMs. I only had guesses on who I thought was a fellow villager and who was a werewolf. I didn't know who the sage was until the very end because I asked him to reveal himself.

If the werewolves can't PM, how do they determine who they kill?
"If at first you DO succeed, try not to look surprised!"

Nate
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Re: Werewolf Round 4

Post by Nate » Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:40 am

They only sent them to the villagers that were scanned by the Sage. I as well didn't receive any. I would assume the two of us weren't scanned yet.
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Deadman
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Re: Werewolf Round 4

Post by Deadman » Thu Aug 21, 2008 2:25 am

Yeah, once od scanned someone he'd pm them and add them to the group. So people who didn't get pms were just those he didn't have time to scan before the game ended.

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